When will this end?
Realizing that this is only the beginning of COVID-19, U.S. shoppers begin to wonder when this nightmare will be over and what long-lasting impact it will have on their daily lives.
In these past couple of weeks, we have been documenting U.S. consumer’s shifting attitudes and self-reported behaviors amidst the COVID-19 pandemic through a series of consumer pulse checks. In week one we described consumers’ pulses as elevated and irregular. Some people seemed worried and took action, but many continued to live their lives as usual. In week two, we described consumers’ pulse as racing. More people began to react and acknowledge that they must take preventative measures. Some of these measures included purchasing extra groceries, including buying brands they’ve never tried before so that they had extra products on reserve. Just in case, right?
It seems like every day there are news reports of actions that our government is taking, including several states being ordered on lockdown. Last week, the Federal Government passed a $2+ trillion coronavirus stimulus bill. With the COVID-19 situation progressing at a rapid rate, these weekly consumer pulse checks allow us to put a time stamp on people’s thoughts and actions during this devastating moment in our history. This week, we’ve once again had the privilege of collaborating with Mary Cooper and Carrie Shea from IRI Growth Consulting to deliver our latest report.
Pulse check on March 25: Anxious, uneasy.
Rasto Ivanic, GroupSolver: At a high level, what do we see happening this week?
Mary Cooper, IRI: What we’ve seen in this survey is that the younger shoppers got a head start on it and the older consumers are now catching up. We wonder if maybe the older people have better stocked pantries? Possibly some of the younger consumers that are more mobile and going out more and more apt to live in apartments and condos may have had less groceries on hand?
RI: That is a good point, because in the open-ended question, we asked about how people expect their behaviors might be different after the coronavirus has passed, the younger people said that they will keep their pantry stocked better. It’s almost as if they are reacting to having been caught by surprise with little in their pantry.
Carrie Shea, IRI: I would add that people said they would save more money in the future. People seem to want to do a better job in the future planning for these types of unexpected events. And that they plan to have more cash on hand for these unforeseen situations.
MC: Not only purchase behaviors are going to shift, but I think people will change their household cleaning and personal hygiene approaches, which could impact other categories.
RI: Let’s talk more about what people thought would be a change in their behavior. First of all, when we asked people if they expect a continued and significant impact after the crisis is over, about 70% of respondents said yes.
RI: When we asked what that impact might be, some things people talked about were cleanliness, not just about the food they were buying, but also how they clean their house. They are talking about personal economics. They expect to be eating at home more, and also keeping their pantries better stocked.
MC: I think it’s pretty clear that people are going to be thinking about this in a whole different way because there are still people saying: “Oh my gosh! I can’t believe this is happening.” They don’t want to get caught like this in the future.
CS: A few other things people mentioned that could have some significant ramifications down the road for retailers and restaurants are 1) continuing to eat meals at home and 2) being more cautious when touching items in public. I think that this could have implications for the produce/deli sections of grocery stores. I think people are going to be more concerned about “how many people have touched this orange before me?”. It may have longer-term implications for food safety and how to interpret cleanliness in a retail and restaurant environment.
MC: I think it could have great impact on our packaging industry too. Much of our produce is out in the open. And even some things like breads and salad bars. I wonder if there will be more salads in containers and more packaging opportunities. I think people will be more concerned about that moving forward.
RI: When you listen to scientists talking about how long COVID-19 will stick to surfaces, is the food industry thinking about how this could be impacted in packaging and what implication it has in general?
MC: There is a big opportunity to address packaging in many ways and food handling. It is all the way through the process: what happens at retail, what happens when you put it in your car, what happens when you bring it home, what happens if you freeze it or wash it right then? So, a whole host of things are going to be changing.
CS: I think the selection of items that people will make at the store will be driven much more now by this question of packaging. That type of behavior might stick even after COVID-19 goes away.
RI: We asked a question this time about what people are eating more or less of. When looking at the data, it looks like people are snacking much more. They are telling us that they eat more frozen fruits and vegetables, canned and prepared foods, and frozen and processed meats. What goes down are fresh meats in general.
CS: I don’t necessarily think that pattern is going to stay. I think some people are stress-eating or doing it because of boredom. On social media I’ve seen a lot of people shifting to baking. I think there are also people worried about weight gain because they are not eating properly. Others are taking the opportunity to eat healthy and mange things. Everybody is shifting behaviors as they are having to settle in to new routines at home.
RI: Snacking for sure is a thing. When looking at responses to why they are eating more or eating less, the fact that stress and the new situation are impacting eating habits is real. Stress-eating showed up in both categories: eating more or eating less. Boredom is on top of the list for a lot of people too. What I also found interesting was that those who were eating less mentioned conserving food.
MC: I think there might be two tails to that end. 1) the people worried about their budget and the long-haul and 2) those who over-bought.
CS: I think there is a bifurcation happening in our country between the people who are now unemployed and very worried versus those that are still employed and less worried.
RI: Employment concerns and economic hardship is becoming more prominent. When we asked people about their worries, effect on small businesses, unemployment, and the economy going forward is there. When we asked people how long they think this will ask, people in general are expecting this to las 12 weeks. There is a good chunk of respondents who think this is going to last significantly more. Are manufacturers prepared to go that long?
MC: That’s a good question. I think there is some shifting for manufacturers. They have to shift their lines to adjust. We are getting a lot of questions from our clients about how they should deal with demand planning, how will they forecast out? Furthermore, they are wondering about stockpiling — is there going to be a dip or not? They are trying to figure this out because they want to produce enough but not over-produce.
RI: We asked respondents that if they are buying extra, whether it is for real-time consumption or if it primarily to hold in reserve. The answer was split about 50/50.
CS: I think this is a particularly interesting insight. What we need to understand is are people going to continue to pantry load, and what is the capacity for continued pantry loading? Are they going to use their garage or keep food in their cars? Those who think this will last for 12 weeks or longer are probably more concerned about pantry loading. I think we have to watch these numbers really closely in the coming weeks. I suspect pantry loading will continue for many months, especially for those that fear a second wave of disease in the fall.
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Carrie Shea is a managing partner at IRI Growth Consulting with a wealth of experience in growth consulting and consumer insights. Mary Cooper is a senior principal at IRI Growth Consulting with a focus on CPG and Retail. Rasto Ivanic is a founder and CEO of GroupSolver.
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